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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite imagery shows that showers and thunderstorms associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave located about 750 miles east of
the Windward Islands have become less organized over the last
several hours. There is no evidence of a surface circulation at this
time, and a combination of dry air and strong upper-level winds are
expected to make development of this system unlikely while it moves
westward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop by
Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between
Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and
a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form late this weekend or
early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by Saturday. Some slow development of this system is possible early
next week as it moves quickly westward across the low latitudes of
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Orrison/Blake
