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    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
    association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of
    this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone
    once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and
    northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
    Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
    peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
    Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
    disturbance later today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

    2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of
    Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
    unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of
    days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development
    by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or
    Florida.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
    about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated
    with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in
    a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
    strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore,
    tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
    northwestward at about 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    Forecaster Cangialosi


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